Each year at the end of March, the USDA releases their Prospective Plantings report, and we analyze the results for you. This report includes information surrounding estimated crop plantings for the current year as well as harvest information such as area harvested and yields for the prior and current year. The principal crops included in this report are: corn, all wheat, winter wheat, durum wheat, other spring wheat, oats, barley, flaxseed, cotton, rice, all sorghum, sweet potatoes, dry edible beans, soybeans, sunflower, peanuts, sugarbeets, canola, proso millet, hay, tobacco, and sugarcane.
Planting Expectations
When looking at overall acreage of these 22 principal crops in the United States, the USDA expects a total of 309.9 million acres to be used this year. In 2024, the USDA predicted 313.3 million acres, with actual numbers falling at 311.2 million acres, meaning that they are still expecting more shrinkage in 2025. Looking back, this is the smallest number we've seen since the metric was introduced in 2017 and the first time there have been back-to-back years of reductions resulting in a decline of nearly 10 million acres planted since 2023.
This year, major planting highlights include:
- Corn Planted Acreage Up 5 Percent from 2024: Estimated at 95.3 million acres, 40 of the 48 estimating states are expecting stable or increased acreage.
- Soybean Acreage Down 4 Percent: Estimated at 83.5 million acres, 23 of the 29 estimating states are expecting stable or decreased acreage.
- All Wheat Acreage Down 2 Percent: Estimated at 45.4 million acres overall, which if true will mark the second lowest acreage of all wheat since 1919.
- All Cotton Acreage Down 12 Percent: Estimated at 9.87 million acres overall. American Pima is estimated at 157,000 acres which is a 24% decrease from 2024.
When we compare this data to the 2024 Prospective Plantings report and numbers from 2023, we see some shifts in predictions happening. Last year, corn was expected to decrease 5% as farmers planned to shift primarily to soybeans (up 3% over 2023), but this year corn is up 5% and soybeans are down 4%, showing a rebalancing of the acreage expectations. All Wheat was forecasted to be down 4% last year, and 2% this year. All Cotton however shows the widest swing in expectations - last year farmers were planning to increase planting by 4%, but this year, they are planning to decrease by 12%. American Pima shows this as well - last year it was expected to be up 38% over 2023, and this year they're expecting a 24% decrease over 2024.
If the shift back to corn is fully realized, corn would be at the highest ever percentage of principal planted crops since at least 1993 when the total principal crops planted metric was first available. While we're not sure what is causing the shift, it seems that farmers are shifting "back to normal" after one year of attempting more soybeans.
Harvest 2024 Data
The harvest charts focus on the 2024 data in full. When compared to the 2023 results, we see that many of the yield per acre numbers maintained or improved in 2024 vs 2023, though not all.
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The biggest change in harvest yields in 2024 was sorghum for grain with an increase of 9.3 bushels per acre, or a 17.9% increase. Some other crops, like corn for silage, sorghum for silage, and soybeans for beans all showed minimal changes.
Peanuts decreased again in 2024 by 74 pounds per acre, or 2%, after a decrease of 277 pounds per acre, or 7%, in 2023. The same story is true for cotton, which decreased by 9 bales per acre in 2024 and 102 bales per acre in 2023, or 1.1% and 10.8% respectively. While both yields are still decreasing, the shrinkage was smaller in 2024 than it was in 2023, suggesting we may see leveling out next year.
On the other hand, sugarbeets increased yield again in 2024 by 1.3 tons per acre after an increase of 2.6 tons per acre in 2023. Sugarcane bounced back from last years 1 ton per acre decrease with a 1.1 ton per acre increase. Per the 2022 Census of Agriculture, sugarbeets were the only crop which experienced an increase in the number of farms over the 2017 numbers. Increasing yields could be related to the continued increase in farming attention to the crop.
For a full look into the Prospective Planting data from this year's report as well as others, check out the USDA website here.
